Historic Wallace Idaho
Gyro Days 2017

Winners and Predictions

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At Straight Up Noon, on Saturday, June 17, 2017, the Wallace Gyro Fraternal Organization dropped a large leather ball into the South Fork of the Coeur d'Alene River to begin the 76th Annual Mullan to Wallace Lead Creek Derby. It was a sunny day and lots of us had fun day following the ball downstream along the Trail of the Coeur d'Alenes.


Winners of the 76th Lead Creek Derby

The Wallace Gyro Club sells chances on the time it takes for the ball to make it's seven mile journey to the Sixth Street bridge in Wallace. The money raised through ticket sales and bike ride registration goes to the Gyro Scholarship Fund which awards scholarships to local high school students for college or vocational school.

First Prize of 50 silver dollars was won by Zeke Dexter from Cataldo, whose ticket came the closest to the long winning time of 3:22:52

Win $1000 worth of 0.999 fine silver rounds
The First Prize this year was again ~$1000 worth of silver coins. The person whose computer-picked time is the closest to the Gyro Ball's crossing under the Sixth Street bridge in Wallace won 50 silver dollars. As in the past, thirteen other prizes for varying amounts of cash were also awarded.

The organization is always looking for silver coins and rounds to give away each year, so if you have silver rounds or bars to sell or donate, please contact Dean Cooper at the 1313 Club, (208) 752-9391.

  • 2nd - 6th won $100
    • Darren Arave from Big Creek
    • Phil Baker from Coeur d'Alene
    • Bruce VanBrooke from Wallace
    • Jim Sabala from Coeur d'Alene
    • Steve James from Coeur d'Alene

  • 7th - 11th won $50
    • E. Whyleman from Coeur d'Alene
    • Bruce Flohr from Wallace
    • Terry Carlson from Wallace
    • Sandra Daves from Aguanga, CA
    • Jack Johnson from Silverton

  • 12th - 14th won $25
    • Shauna Hilman from Wallace
    • Janice Salum from Wallace
    • Tammy Scheel from Mullan


Tickets were $1 each. A computer program randomly matched each ticket number with a unique and precise finishing time. This year's winning time of 3:22:52 is paired with 144 inches, the maximum snow depth at the summit of Lookout Pass Ski Area during the 2016/2017 ski season.

Linear regression of the value pairs from the previous 15 years, yields this equation:
     winning time = -64.921*(max snow depth) + 23646
     winning time = -64.921*(144) + 23646
     winning time = 14297 seconds = 3 hours, 58 minutes.

2017 Lead Creek Derby This predicted time is 35 minutes away from the actual 3 hours, 23 minutes race time. Last year my predicted time was 16 minutes away from the actual time. In both years, the R-squared of the trend line was 0.70, meaning 70% of the varience in the data was described by the straight line equation. The orange squares on the chart are data points tied to snow depths on Presidents Day each season at Lookout Pass Ski Area. The R-squared value of 65% shows this to be a less certain prediction tool.

This is a fun example of faux-science, in that there is always a random amount of time spent rescuing the ball from obstacles and whirlpools. Human-Ball interactions cannot always be predicted. However, this summer there was another factor: an unusual and huge amount of spring rainfall as shown the Natural Resources Conservation Service's water year graph on July 12, 2017. We have had TEN INCHES MORE RAIN THIS YEAR than normal. So of course statistics based on previous normal rain years go out the window!

Natural Resources Conservation Service water year
Click on the image to see current data in separate window.
Derby 75 June 2016 4:17:42 2015/16 season 113"
Derby 74 June 2015 5:36:54 2014/15 season 78"
Derby 73 June 2014 4:21:59 2013/14 season 149"
Derby 72 June 2013 3:41:28 2012/13 season 103"
Derby 71 June 2012 2:56:48 2011/12 season 176"
Derby 70 June 2011 3:03:00 2010/11 season 192"
Derby 69 June 2010 4:54:13 2009/10 season 90"
Derby 68 June 2009 4:27:18 2008/09 season 144"
Derby 67 June 2008 3:09:24 2007/08 season 197"
Derby 66 June 2007 4:52:08 2006/07 season 163"
Derby 65 June 2006 3:44:44 2005/06 season 168"
Derby 64 June 2005 4:44:03 2004/05 season 85"
Derby 63 June 2004 3:49:54 2003/04 season 119"
Derby 62 June 2003 3:46:29 2002/03 season 130"
Derby 61 June 2002 1:59:44 2001/02 season 225"
  derby time and snowfall equation

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October 08, 2017
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This GYRO DAYS 2013 page was last modified on June 27, 2016.


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